NRL Match Predictions
10,000 Simulations.
Zero Guesswork.
Our V6 Monte Carlo engine simulates every NRL match 10,000 times using real player data, weather conditions, and referee tendencies. Not AI. Pure mathematics.
Winner Accuracy
Data Points
Sims / Match
Winner Accuracy
Best Bet Rate
Player Data Points
Sims Per Match
Methodology
How It Works
Four steps. 10,000 simulations. One engine powering every prediction.
Player-Level Data
43,000+ rows of per-match player statistics across 40 metrics. Every run metre, tackle break, and line break since 2020.
Contextual Adjustments
Weather conditions, referee tendencies, home ground advantage, player fatigue, and Elo ratings modify team phase strengths before simulation.
10,000 Simulations
Our V6 Monte Carlo engine runs 10,000 full-match simulations using statistical distributions from real player data. Not averages. Distributions.
Predictions and Value
Winner probability, predicted margin, total point bands, try scorer rankings, and value bet identification. All from one unified engine.
The Difference
We Ditched AI. Here's Why.
Versions 1 through 5 used machine learning. LightGBM classifiers. Gradient boosting. They all hit a ceiling. So we built something better.
Machine learning models collapse player-level nuance into team averages. The difference between the best prop in the league and a mid-tier backup? Averaged out. Gone.
Our V6 Monte Carlo engine takes a fundamentally different approach. It profiles every player in the starting 17 using their actual match-by-match statistics. Then it builds team-level distributions that preserve individual impact.
The simulation models 4 phases of a rugby league game: forward dominance, possession chains, zone-based try scoring using Poisson distributions, and defensive suppression. Each phase feeds into the next, exactly like a real match unfolds.
AI learns patterns. Our engine simulates the actual physics of rugby league.
AI Prediction
Monte Carlo
Data Approach
Feeds team-level averages into a model
Profiles each of 34 players individually
Prediction Method
Pattern matching on historical outcomes
Simulates the actual game 10,000 times
Transparency
Black box — no explanation of why
Full breakdown of every adjustment
Player Impact
Crushes individual stats into team averages
Preserves the gap between elite and average
Accuracy Ceiling
60-65% — we tested this across 5 versions
82% winner accuracy this season
The App
See It In Action
Real predictions. Real data. Full transparency on every pick.
Match Predictions
Win Probability
Point Band Analysis
Verified Result
Features
Everything You Need to Win
One subscription. Every prediction type. Full transparency.
Winner Predictions
Confidence-rated match winner picks backed by 10,000 simulations. High, medium, and low tiers based on probability spread.
Point Band Distribution
See the probability of every total points band from 0-29 through to 60+. Know where the game is likely to land.
Try Scorer Probabilities
Zone-by-zone try scoring rates for every player in the starting 17. Built from individual statistical profiles, not team averages.
Value Bet Detection
Identify where bookmaker odds are mispriced. Our engine flags bets where the implied probability gap exceeds 5%.
Elo Rating System
Team strength ratings updated every round. Provides the base probability before player-level adjustments are layered on.
Full Transparency
See every adjustment that shaped a prediction. Weather impact, referee bias, fatigue factors. Nothing hidden.
Pricing
One Plan. Full Access.
No tiers, no feature gates. Every prediction, every round.
- Match winner predictions with confidence %
- Predicted margins and total point bands
- Try scorer probability rankings
- Value bet identification
- Full adjustment transparency
- Every NRL round covered
- Round-by-round results tracking
- Cancel anytime, no lock-in
Cancel anytime. No lock-in. No hidden fees.
FAQ
Common Questions
Straight answers. No jargon.